Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh took the podium for the first time in June, with a more hawkish tone than expected. The dot plot showed nine of 18 officials projecting a rate hike by year-end, up from zero in March. One projection, Warsh's own, was missing from the chart. The policy statement ran roughly 130 words, down from over 300 in recent meetings, and dropped forward guidance. Warsh's press conference was also shorter than his predecessor's. The BEA third estimate of Q1 Real G

The United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran at the end of February, triggering one of the largest oil supply shocks in history. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz prompted Brent and WTI crude oil prices to exceed $110/barrel. Runaway oil prices sent inflation expectations higher, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 40 bps in the month of March. The BEA third estimate of Q4 Real GDP was 0.5%, with consumer spending and investment contributing prominentl

The United States experienced the longest federal government shutdown on record, beginning in October and stretching into mid-November. That disruption temporarily halted key economic data releases and brought uncertainty into markets and policy late in the year. When the dust settled, final estimates showed growth in the economy for the third quarter of 2025. The BEA third estimate of Q3 Real GDP was 4.4%, reflecting an increase in exports and government spending. Core and h